The iPhone 17 is doomed because everyone says it isn’t

Casual readers of this column may incorrectly assume that this pointy observer only takes on silly prognostications about iPhone production cuts. This is a hurtful stereotype of mythical beasts who have heads shaped like classic Macs and you should be ashamed of yourself. Please take a self-paced sensitivity training course.

Unbelievable.

Sure, the Macalope has done a lot of that over the years, but that’s largely because there have simply been so many laughably wrong warnings about the inherent doom in what are standard production cuts that happen ever year after Apple ramps up for the fall event.

It’s a supply side issue, not a demand side issue.

Take, for example, the mad rush to declare the iPhone X a colossal failure, which was a high-larious French farce level event, with doors opening and closing and things wildly spinning out of control. Several analysts had their clothing caught in closed doors as they were running around and were left in their knickers.

That’s how the Macalope recalls it, anyway.

What actually happened was that Nikkei reported Apple had cut iPhone X orders from 40 million to 20 million units, which only makes sense if you don’t understand integers. Apple had only sold 50 million iPhones total the same quarter the previous year, so it was some hot nonsense to think the company thought it was going to sell 40 million iPhone Xs alone. It was later reported that Apple had actually thought it was going to sell 45 to 50 million, so the cut was even bigger. Ultimately, iPhone sales for the quarter were revealed to have been great, with the iPhone X having been the best seller.

Despite this, iPhone production cut obsession syndrome doesn’t hold a candle to the Macalope’s all-time favorite analyst estimate evah, which isn’t even really about the iPhone (and, no, the Macalope will not stop bringing this up because it’s never not funny). Back in 2011, a Pyramid Research analyst made a bold prediction: Windows Phone Will Beat Android In 2013, Analyst Explains.

That–the Macalope cannot stress this enough–did not happen. Not only did it not happen, it negatively happened as Windows Phone was discontinued and Android continued to ship the most units.

You will be surprised to learn that Pyramid Research is no longer a thing and that the analyst who predicted that is now on the AI beat.

Not surprised. The Macalope meant “not surprised.” The point is, take it as writ that analysts numbers are, shall we say, pretty squishy. Like a Halloween pumpkin in December. Someplace hot.

That brings us to this week’s news: iPhone 17 demand sees Apple almost catch Samsung, says IDC.

Early iPhone 17 estimates had the low end models doing pretty well with a big question mark over the iPhone 17 Air.

So, let’s get back to the Macalope’s earlier point because, as John Gruber notes, these are just estimates. They may be right and are probably directionally correct. But they may be wrong. So, there’s no need for any irrational exu-

“Apple’s stock hits new all-time high with iPhone 17 sales surging”

Doesn’t anyone listen?

Why does the Macalope bother writing these things?

Okay, sure, you have to place your bets on the available information, and if the information says iPhone sales are up, why not buy? Well… sigh. The Macalope supposes so.

It’s just that having covered Apple rumors for… (oh, god, it’s been that long?)… for a while now, the Macalope has personally seen too many bad estimates from analysts to take them seriously. Sure, some analysts are better than others, and maybe a preponderance of reports indicates something real…

…or maybe it’s a Windows Phone beats Android type situation.

(It’s still funny.)